Crunching the numbers; a short analysis of America's vote

a collaborative work with Leonard Scott:

In the 2008 Presidential Election, 126 million votes were cast, up 4 million from the total in 2004. Exit-Polls indicate that 26% of voters were Non-White in 2008, vs. 23% in 2004. Non-Whites voted 83-17 in favor of Obama in 2008 ; 73-27 for Kerry in 2004. With all that data in hand, do the math and you'll find:

2008 (based on figures at time of publication):

White voters: 93 million
Non-White voters: 33 million

2004:

White voters: 94 million
Non-White voters: 28 million


2008 (based on figures at time of publication):

Obama [52.5%] received 66 million votes [27million from Non-Whites, 39million from Whites]
McCain [46.2%] received 58 million votes [5.5million from Non-Whites, 52.5million from Whites]

2004:


Kerry [48.3%] received 59 million votes [20.5million from Non-Whites, 38.5million from Whites]
Bush [50.7%] received 62 million votes [7.5million from Non-Whites, 54.5 million from Whites]



Analysis:

Turnout surged among Non-Whites and increased among White-Democrats due to "Obamaniac" young voters. The untold story of the election, though, is that several million White Republicans who voted in 2004 stayed out of the election in 2008, coinciding with a trend where the total number of eligible-to-vote Whites increased along with the total number of Whites who did not vote.

Looking at the raw numbers, the Republicans came up with two million fewer White votes in 2008 than they did in 2004. Although the Democrats pulled in half a million more White votes in 2008 than in 2004, this figure could have come from a slight increase in White adults who are of age to vote (from approx. 148 million in 2004 to 148.5 million in 2008, based on a slight White demographic growth from about 194.8 million to 196.7 million between 2004 and 2008, with underage figures of around 46.5 million and 48 million, respectively) and, in particular, the first-time voters who were more likely to vote for Obama anyway. What this means is that the two million fewer White Republican voters in 2008 could still translate into a figure where about two million White, former Republican voters sat out of the election completely. Keeping in mind that some of the 53.5 million Whites who did not vote in 2004 may be disgruntled non-voters who had voted Republican in former years - and that, in 2008, that number of non-voting Whites went up another half million - one begins to see a non-voting, disgruntled Republican base swelling up to tens of millions.

Decline in White voting out of righteous 'political disgust' is good news. At least, for those who believe that the Republican Party, only masquerading as an alternative to lib-left globalism, must be delegitimized so a real opposition can arise, and the clownish McCain Wing of the Republican Party will fall on its proverbial sword. Because these numbers prove that people such as McCain cannot be serious Republican candidates and cannot motivate key elements of their base. Unless this happens, expect the Democratic Party to breeze to victory after victory.